Juan Gea Bermúdez: Modelling of future electricity prices, Master's thesis, DTU, Technical University of Denmark, 2017.

Objective

This work aims at providing a methodology that can help answer the following research questions:
1. How can one do long-term electricity price predictions?
2. What are the main drivers affecting electricity prices?
3. What is the effect of uncertainty on electricity price forecast?
Based on these research questions, the objectives of this Master Thesis are as follow:
- To perform a critical review of the main methods used to forecast electricity prices in Denmark.
- To create a framework for characterising uncertainty with energy models.
- To identify which parameters are the key drivers of electricity prices.
- To assess the robustness of results with respect to the uncertainty on input parameters.
It is anticipated that the results of this work are intended to be particularly valuable for plant investors due to their private economic perspective.